GOALS NOT COUNTING PENALTIES

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They can have two uses. On the one hand, they serve to know the quality of a player (or a team) in the execution of shots. If a player has a higher xGOT than his xG it is telling us that he is shooting with better accuracy than the quality of chances he is getting.

The difference between the xG and the xGOT will tell us if that player (or team) is adding more or less value to his shots, that is, if he is improving or not his chances of scoring with those shots.

In the Madrid derby on December 12, 2021 that Real Madrid won 2-0 against Athletic de Madrid, the second goal was the work of Ascension.

 The xG on that occasion (before the auction) was 0.07xG.

That is to say, the characteristics of that play ventured that his probability of scoring was less than one every 10 attempts. However, Ascension placed the low shot on the right side of the net, making it difficult for Bola to stop it, giving it a value of 0.47xGOT. In other words, a shot like this would be a goal almost half the time. Therefore, despite the difficulty of the opportunity, the high quality of Ascensions placement increased his probability of being a 해외축구중계 and, therefore,

On the other hand, xGOTs can be applied to goalkeepers as well.

Since they measure the probability that shots on goal will result in goals, the only factor that prevents them from being scored is the goalkeeper. Thus, a shot that with a 0.6xGOT has a 60% chance of being scored, but it is also a shot that has a 40% chance of being avoided by the goalkeeper.

Therefore, with this metric it is possible to obtain how many goals a goalkeeper would be expected to concede based on the quality of the shots he received (difference between goals conceded and xGOT). The higher the number of goals prevented, the better the goalkeeper’s performance in terms of saves determined by the quality of the shots he faced. In this way, it makes it a much fairer measure when assessing the performance of a goalkeeper than the number or percentage of saves, since in these cases they do not measure the quality of the shots, all of them ‘worth’ the same .

A good example of this is seen in the following image from The Analyst.

 In the 2019-20 season, both Dean Henderson and David de Gea had almost identical numbers in shots conceded (126 vs 128), clean sheets (13) and goals conceded (32), but the quality of the shots received Henderson told us that he should have conceded 39.4 goals and De Gea 33 and, therefore, Henderson avoided 7.4 more goals than he should, compared to one by De Gea.

What are they?

They are all those passes that end in a shot . For some providers, a key pass occurs regardless of whether the shot ends in a goal or not. If it ends in a goal, that key pass is also an assist, counting both. Other providers differentiate it, so the key passes are only if the shot does not end in a goal and if it ends in a goal it becomes an assist, but not both at the same time.

What are they worth?

To find out the ability of a player to make passes that lead to a scoring chance . Or, put another way, the contribution of a player in the generation of goal plays.

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